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Winning
Tips for Gambling on Baseball
Find
value betting on the underdog
The best
baseball teams lose at least sixty games a year and the worst
teams win close to that same number. The rest of the league
falls somewhere in between. Consider that the more favorites
you bet, the higher the percentage of wins you'll need to break
even. For example, if your average bet is a –150 favorite
you’ll need to hit 60% winners just to break even. At –170,
that number increases to 63% and so on.
Now consider
the opposite. If your average bet is a +120 underdog, your
break-even percentage drops to approximately 45.5%. At +140,
its down to just over 42% and the higher you go the lower the
breakeven percentage. Keeping in mind that even the poorest
baseball teams seldom win fewer than 37% of their games, it is
apparent that looking for opportunities to bet on underdogs is
essential to profitable baseball wagering.
Limit your
wagers on favorites
While most
successful baseball bettors look to play underdogs first, favorites
can frequently present good value as well. Often times,
one will find a top team playing on the road as a minor favorite
or other situations will present themselves where small favorites
are a good play. To bet baseball successfully, you should
implement a strict limit on how much you’ll lay on a favorite,
say -150 or lower. Once you establish your “cut off” for wagering
favorites, never wager more than that, regardless of the circumstance
or situation.
Avoid putting
too much stock in starting pitchers
Too many
sports handicappers place too much emphasis on the starting pitcher.
It’s understandable, of course, since the bookmakers list the
starting pitcher when setting the line for each game. If
you pay any attention to baseball, however, you’ll know that the
quality of starting pitching has reached a state of equality,
if not mediocrity. Sure, there's a small number of elite
pitchers, but all others are a cut below these few. And since
you’ll never get these guys anywhere near your favorite cut off
point, don’t worry about them.
It's an obvious
fact that baseball is a game of streaks, and nowhere is this more
evident than in pitching. If a starter is demonstrating
particularly good or particularly bad recent form, it might not
be compensated for in the line and there may be value in playing
on (or against) the starter in question. Overall, however,
starting pitching receives way too much emphasis when evaluating
baseball from a wagering standpoint.
Realize that
baseball is a game of streaks
This is no
secret, of course, but it is something to be aware of when betting
on baseball. No matter what else you find relevant about
a game, you should think twice about betting against a team that
has won three or more games in a row or on a team that has lost
three or more games in a row. This may sound superstitious,
but it's a valuable rule to follow. You'll always be better
off in the long run by not going against a winning or losing streak
the majority of the time.
Why home
field advantage just doesn't matter
Of all major
sports, there may be less advantage to playing at home in baseball
than in any other. This is especially true during the long
regular season. Granted there are teams that do better in
certain ballparks than others, but this is more a function of
the design of the ballpark and the personnel of the team than
any home field advantage. Some parks are clearly “pitcher's
parks” or “hitter's parks”, but it works both ways - the opposing
pitchers and hitters often have the same advantage or disadvantage
as the home team’s players. Furthermore, bad teams are frequently
overvalued at home, which results in good value on the visitor.
Over the course of season, most teams will probably do better
at home than on the road but the higher prices you’ll have to
pay will negate this fact. More often than not, “home field
advantage” shouldn’t be a consideration in handicapping a game.
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